South Africa vs New Zealand – 12 September
It has been an epic tour, packed with high-intensity rugby, big hits, big emotions and, underneath it all, plenty of mutual respect.
And now, there is just one game left.
After three Tests, the Springboks lead the series 2–1, meaning New Zealand have their backs against the wall. The All Blacks need to win in Baltimore to force the series into a 2–2 draw.
South Africa? They simply need to avoid defeat to take the series outright.
So, yes – there is plenty on the line.
The final showdown
Saturday, 12 September will bring the final chapter of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland – the home of the NFL’s Baltimore Ravens.
And this isn’t just any rugby match.
It will be the first-ever Test between South Africa and New Zealand played in the United States, taking one of rugby’s most famous rivalries to a completely new audience.
Why Baltimore?
Rugby is making a serious push into the American sporting market, with the USA set to host the Men’s Rugby World Cup in 2031. World Rugby has identified the United States as a major growth market and is investing heavily in developing the sport ahead of that tournament.
What better way to showcase rugby in America than by bringing the Springboks and All Blacks to town?
Who has the edge?
This is where things get interesting.
South Africa have momentum. They have won the last two Tests and arrive in Baltimore with a 2–1 lead.
Their biggest weapon remains their forward pack.
Expect plenty of pressure at scrum time, powerful carries, breakdown pressure and, when the Boks get close to the try line, the dreaded rolling maul.
Malcolm Marx is one of the key men to watch. The Springbok hooker is dangerous around the breakdown and can turn a lineout into a serious attacking weapon.
Then there is Pieter-Steph du Toit, whose work rate around the park makes him one of the most influential forwards on the field.
And behind them sits Jesse Kriel, a hugely experienced centre who has already made his mark in this series.
The Boks don’t necessarily need to run the All Blacks off their feet. Their game is about pressure, territory, physicality and forcing opponents into mistakes.
The All Blacks’ answer: speed
New Zealand will need to find a way to stop South Africa dictating the pace of the game.
That means quick ball.
That means width.
And that means getting their dangerous backs into space.
Cam Roigard is one of the key players to watch. At scrum-half, his ability to move the ball quickly can completely change the tempo of a game.
Then there is Ruben Love, who brings creativity and attacking flair from the backline.
If New Zealand can get front-foot ball and give their backs room to work, suddenly the Springbok defence has a very different problem.
The All Blacks have already shown in this series that they can score against South Africa.
The problem?
They haven’t always been able to maintain that pressure for 80 minutes.
The injury list
Both sides will be missing some serious firepower.
New Zealand captain Ardie Savea is ruled out after suffering a dislocated shoulder in the third Test. Luke Jacobson and Quinn Tupaea are also unavailable following injuries.
South Africa will be without Cheslin Kolbe, who suffered a broken jaw during the third Test.
Kolbe’s absence is a particularly interesting one. His pace, kicking ability and ability to beat defenders make him one of the Springboks’ most dangerous attacking weapons.
Betting Angle: Where could the value be?
With the final Test being played on neutral territory, there are several different ways to look at this matchup beyond simply picking the winner.
Match Winner
South Africa is our pick.
The Springboks come into the game with a 2–1 series lead, two consecutive victories and a forward pack capable of controlling territory and possession.
New Zealand are certainly capable of winning, but South Africa’s consistency gives them the edge.
Pick: South Africa
Winning Margin
This is where things get more interesting.
We aren’t expecting a runaway victory. The first three Tests have shown just how small the margins between these two sides can be.
A 1–10 point winning margin looks particularly interesting.
If South Africa’s forwards dominate, they could grind out another close victory rather than blowing the All Blacks away.
Pick: South Africa by 1–10 points
Total Match Points
Expect points, but don’t necessarily expect a points-fest.
Both teams have attacking weapons capable of scoring tries, but the physical battle could also lead to a territory-driven game where penalties and kicks at goal become important.
A total somewhere around the 40–50 point range feels realistic.
If New Zealand play with pace and South Africa are forced into an open game, the total could climb higher.
Our lean: Over 40.5 points
Player & Try-Scorer Markets
This is where things gets really interesting.
For South Africa, Malcolm Marx is always worth watching around the try line. His power and ability to finish from close range make him a natural consideration for anytime try-scorer markets.
Pieter-Steph du Toit is another player to watch. He may not be the obvious try-scoring pick, but his work around the breakdown and close-quarter play can put him in dangerous positions.
For New Zealand, Cam Roigard could be one of the most influential attacking players on the field. His speed from the base of the ruck means he can create opportunities for himself and those around him.
And if New Zealand manage to stretch the Springbok defence, Ruben Love could become a major threat.
Players to watch:
🇿🇦 Malcolm Marx
🇿🇦 Pieter-Steph du Toit
🇿🇦 Jesse Kriel
🇳🇿 Cam Roigard
🇳🇿 Ruben Love
Player and try-scorer markets are dependent on the confirmed matchday squads and starting XVs.
So, who wins?
If you’re looking at the momentum, form and current situation, South Africa have to be considered the favourites.
They lead the series 2–1, have won the last two Tests and have shown they can handle the All Blacks’ attacking game.
But this is New Zealand.
And that’s why this could be one of the most difficult games of the entire series to predict.
The All Blacks have nothing to lose.
Win in Baltimore and they take the series to a 2–2 draw.
Lose, and the Springboks walk away as the winners of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.
Our pick: South Africa
Match Winner: South Africa
Winning Margin: South Africa by 1–10 points
Total Points: Over 40.5
Try-Scorer Watch: Malcolm Marx
Predicted Score: South Africa 27–23 New Zealand
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